According to the Institute for Security Studies, crime is decreasing in the province and citizens are becoming safer.
|||KwaZulu-Natal is indeed becoming safer for its citizens in certain respects, according to the Institute for Security Studies.
On Wednesday, Johan Burger, senior researcher at the institute, confirmed the credibility of the 2010/11 police statistics, which showed a drop in aggravated robbery in the province.
In addition, Burger cited a survey in which people said they felt far safer now than they had done in 2007, and another which claimed that the likelihood of being murdered or raped during an aggravated robbery was much lower than people believed.
He was speaking at a seminar on crime at the University of KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday.
Burger’s survey of house and business robberies and of hijackings was prompted by public doubt over the accuracy of police statistics.
He said the institute had opted to look at other sources to identify general trends, such as the 2011Grant Thornton international business report, statistics from the Consumer Goods Risk Initiative and the SA Insurance Association, and surveys on public perceptions of crime.
The 2010/11 police crime statistics for KZN showed that hijacking had decreased to 2 619 incidents from 3 715 in 2009/10, business robbery to 3 998 incidents from 4 580, and home robberies to 1 943 incidents from 2 066.
The survey on public perceptions of crime documented a 15 percent spike from 2003 to 2011 in the number of people who said they felt safe to walk around their neighbourhoods after dark.
Burger said this was a “huge indicator” that crime was reducing.
He said a study of 1 700 police dockets had revealed that it was not necessarily true that people would be killed or raped during a house robbery.
He said that according to the study, the confrontation between attacker and victim seldom went beyond manhandling during house robberies, and that this was also true for business robberies and hijackings.
“It (murder during house robberies) happens, but less frequently than people think,” he said.
Although the study was conducted from 2006 to 2008, Burger said he did not think that much had changed in subsequent years.
Burger attributed the decline in some serious crimes in part to the 44 percent increase in police numbers from 2003 to 2011, and the 131.7 percent increase in the police budget over the same period. He said that visible policing – a lesson learnt during the 2010 World Cup – was making an impact.
Addressing criminals’ perceptions of police, Burger said they were emboldened by police corruption and that there was much proof that criminals committed “hundreds” of crimes before being caught.
He hoped that if a new national police commissioner was appointed, it would be someone who had served as a policeman rather than someone “tainted by political affiliations”.
“The former commissioner and suspended police commissioner (Jackie Selebi and Bheki Cele respectively) were not properly qualified for the position,” he said. - The Mercury